The BCS, the most hated and unfair system to determine the FBS National Championship (not my words and I don't agree with them) has once again captivated America into interest of games most likely would not be watched by Southeastern football fans.
Then there was one left....one undefeated team in Notre Dame. It would not surprise me if some inbred moron who can surprising count up to 9 calls into Paul Finebaum's show today talking about how Notre Dame hasn't played anyone and has no business being No. 1.
Here is where I prove him wrong: Notre Dame has defeated 3 currently ranked BCS teams to Alabama's 2....and Michigan is Notre Dame's 3rd best win (Oklahoma, Stanford) compared to Alabama's second best win (LSU). The Irish has played 7 opponents who are already bowl eligible compared to Alabama's 6 with Alabama (including SEC Championship matchup). Notre Dame has currently 2 opponents on their schedule who have been mathematically eliminated from bowls and 4 still flirting with bowls at 5 wins compared to Alabama's 4 mathematically eliminated opponents and and 2 still fliring with bowls. Have we eliminated the need to question Notre Dame's worthiness of #1 in the country? We have? Good.
The more meaningful conversation to have is.....what happens if Lane Kiffin is able to pull off the upset of the #1 team in the nation?
A few things we should already book:
1) Alabama will have no problem with Auburn.
2) Georgia will have no trouble with Georgia Tech.
3) The winner of the SEC Championship Game will lock up one of the spots in Miami.
Where does that leave the other slot?
As I've looked at the numbers, I admit I first kind of laughed off the possibility of Florida sneaking in at the last second. Again, we are assuming Notre Dame loses this weekend. Here are some of the teams still in the hunt and the scenarios that need to happen to get them to Miami.
Oregon - Despite the inability to put away the Fighting tree with a kicker (sounds familiar right?), the Ducks are not out of it just yet.
1) Beat Oregon State
2) UCLA must beat Stanford
3) Defeat UCLA in Pac-12 Championship Game
4) Hope voters are not as forgiving to Notre Dame for losing to USC,
Oregon has the most realistic scenario if a Notre Dame loss does happen. Their situation is a little different than last year's Alabama team. Oregon could have two games against ranked teams where they could climb back into the #2 spot and seal their trip to Miami. Oregon would be 4-1 against current ranked BCS teams. If Stanford wins, Oregon could be done and hope for an At-Large BCS Bid.
Florida - Despite how awful Florida is to watch on television, they find a way to get W's. Despite losing to SEC East Champion Georgia. Florida's opponent W/L record is 84-45 (including a win over 7-4 Bowling Green, 6-4 UL-Lafeyette, a 6-5 Jacksonville St. team, and potential win over 10-1 Florida St. in non-conference) with conference wins over Texas A&M, LSU, and a beatdown of South Carolina.) Florida could be 4-1 vs. Current BCS Top 25 teams. With even a strong looking non-conference schedule and those big conference wins, despite losing to UGA, The Gators have an argument for the 2nd consecutive SEC filled BCS Title Game.
1) Florida St.
2) Hope Oregon loses to Oregon St.
3) UCLA beats Stanford
4) Hope voter are not forgiving of Notre Dame losing to USC.
Kansas St - Personally, after getting drummed by a Baylor team that is yet bowl elgible, Kansas St has a very small argument for the BCS Title Game if Lane Kiffin pulls out the unthinkable. However, they only drop to #6 in the rankings. I can lay down the opponent W-L record for K-State, but losing by 28 to a 5 win team and being ranked #1 should be enough, much different than losing by a slim margin to the likes of an Iowa St. like Oklahoma St did last year. But, to be fair, I will point out the scenario that needs to happen for the Thundercats to plunge back into the race if the Irish fall.
1) Beat Texas
2) Florida must lose to Florida State
3) Oregon must lose to Oregon St or (possible) UCLA in Pac-12 Championship
4) Stanford must lose once to UCLA in possible two meetings.
5) Hope to God Harris Poll voters forgot about the Baylor Game.
Stanford - You maybe asking, why Stanford? That's a 2 loss team. You are correct. However, given the crazy chaos that is ensuing, with Stanford's win over Oregon and a matchup with a ranked UCLA team, the dominoes could fall and give them an argument. The Pac-12 (with the exception of Washington St and Colorado) is, believe it or not, better than the USC years of dominance in the last decade. With non-conference wins over a 9-2 San Jose State, 6-5 Duke, and an overtime loss to Notre Dame, the loss to 6-5 Washington could be looked past adding a possible Pac-12 Championship. Here's what needs to happen:
1) Beat UCLA (twice)
2) Hope Florida St. beats Florida
3) Hope Texas beats Kansas St.
4) Hope Oregon St. beats Oregon
Florida St. - I looked at Florida States schedule and it is pathetic. The ACC is pathetic. Scheduling 2 FCS schools and losing to an NC State team, who lost to Tennessee, who recently fired their coach really turns me off from considering the Seminoles a valid contender. Even with a win over Florida, they would only have 2 wins over currently ranked BCS teams.
1) Beat Florida
2) Hope a national nuclear holocaust hits and only spares the town of Tallahassee, Florida.
I know there's LSU, South Carolina, and Texas A&M but at this point, they might be just playing for a BCS bid, and that's questionable at best. Only Stanford to me has the best chance to get in with 2 losses. South Carolina beating Clemson is not that impressive, Texas A&M beating Missouri is really not impressive, and LSU beating Arkansas is obvious.
There's your scenarios....feel free to discuss and we will see if Lane Kiffin can pull off the miracle with a Freshman as his QB. Notre Dame doesn't score many points, but they don't give up many either. Which could be a recipe for upset if USC can get a rhythm.
