The 1st BCS Standings will be released this Sunday. Which means let's go ahead and lay out scenarios of what's going to happen. Pat Forde at Yahoo Sports has already looked over the computer rankings.
The Computer Rankings are not too kind to Alabama.
You can't argue against the fact that the Crimson Tide are not getting help from their scheduled opponents when it comes to schedule strength. Michigan already has two losses, Arkansas and Auburn have screwed the pooch and LSU's loss to Florida.
I decided to do a little research myself. I researched the W-L record of each team (that's undefeated and in BCS Title contention) and their opponent's strength of schedule average.
Alabama's opponent W-L record (counting all opponents, including ones not played) is 35-30 (.538 winning percentage) with Miss St. (5-0) and LSU (5-1) as the best records and FAU (1-4) and Western Carolina (FCS, 1-5) as the worst.
Despite the deteroration of the overall W-L record by their opponents, their strength of schedule is averaged around 41 with the toughest being Ole Miss (13, according Congrave rankings), and Western Kentucky (83) as the weakest.
When looking at the other teams in contention:
Oregon - 36-29 (.553 Winning %) Opponent Win-Loss record, Average Opponent strength of schedule 51.6 with Arizona (23) as the toughest and Fresno St. (96).
South Carolina - 40-27 (.675 Winning %), Average Opponent Strength of schedule 41.25 with Kentucky (8) being the toughest schedule and East Carolina (104) being the weakest.
West Virginia - 39-19 (.672 Winning %), Average Opponent Strength of schedule 14 with Kansas (1) with the toughest and Marshall (71) being the weakest.
Kansas St. - 37-22 (.627 Winning %), Average Opponent Strength of schedule 23 with Kansas (1) with the toughest schedule and North Texas (74) with the weakest.
Florida - 44-23 (.656 Winning %) Average Opponent Strength of schedule 49 with Kentucky (8) with the toughest schedule and Bowling Green (121) with the weakest.
Notre Dame- 37-26 (.587 Winning %) Average Opponent Strength of schedule 42 with Oklahoma (5) having the toughest schedule and Navy (118) having the weakest.
As I've crunched these numbers, I realized what's the point? Clearly Oklahoma State had the tougher schedule compared to Alabama last year. Yet, The Cowboys were left out in the cold for having the more brutal loss (Iowa State compared to LSU).
Other factors that have to be noticed is, how many if any survive the rest of this season undefeated? Kansas State and West Virginia will square off as well as South Carolina and Florida. Alabama still has LSU with time to recover from whatever humid funk the Tigers are in right now. Notre Dame still has games like Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC to survive. I wouldn't be shocked if they did run the table, but I don't think they'll be able to. Oregon still has Stanford, and possibly two matches with USC (including the Pac-12 Championship)
Here's what we know about the 2012 BCS Title Hunt....there's a possibility that 2 13-0 or 12-0 can get into this game. There's 7 teams battling for those spots. Until the next domino that falls (like LSU and Florida State last week), then we'll have a better idea as weeks go by.
Enjoy the ride, I know I am!!!
