The SEC Preview will take a little break with Mississippi St, Kentucky, and Tennessee for the weekend. Earlier this week, I was listening to my friends at The Jox Roundtable(On WJOX-Birmingham, SportsRadio 730 The UMP/103.9FM-Huntsville, and The Deuce in Tuscaloosa) and they were asking for their 3 guarantees in the 2012 College Football Season. After 2 years of not blogging or giving a preview, I decided to knock the dust off the old crystal ball and see if it worked.
Last Year I said that Auburn would be better than most of people thought who were saying a young team would go 5-7. It was looking good after their Utah State scare, but the Tigers were able to win 7 games in the regular season, like I said they could.
This year, I won't just leave it to SEC predictions, I'll go beyond that. After pontificating and plugging in all the trends and formulas, here's 10 things I think will happen in 2012.
1) Texas A&M and Missouri will be better than most of the SEC fans think: It may not show up on the W-L record, which is what most SEC fans use to gauge expectations. However, these two teams are not necessarily the new Ole Miss or Kentucky.
Missouri has the benefit of geographical derp in the SEC being placed in the East. One concern is the injuries in this offseason could lead to a slow start, and that's what you don't want in the SEC. Missouri has an opportunity to make a statement early, with a home win over Georgia. The Bulldogs are known for starting slow for 3 consecutive seasons. With the SEC East still inferior to it's counterpart to the west and many crucial games being at home, I can see Missouri with 8-4, 4-4 and capitalizing on recruiting with their new conference status.
Texas A&M, on paper, seems to have a very tall task coming into the SEC West. At first, I bought into this. However, that would have been the case if Mike Sherman was still the head coach. Kevin Sumlin brings a spread offense to college station. The Aggies have been killing the recruiting trail and don't look to be holding back. Sumlin is 1-1 vs. the SEC (Miss St) with a 31-24 victory in 2009 and a 47-24 loss in 2010. Granted this school comes from the Big XII where it's reputations of defense is non-existent, the Aggies gave up an average of 35 points per game against Big XII opponents. What is different for A&M this go around is that the offenses in the SEC are very bland, with the exception of the cream of the crop in the SEC. If the spread offense can come together, Texas A&M can also go 8-4 this season with a 4-4 SEC record.
2) Florida will be lucky to win 7 or 8 games: Despite the recruiting classes Will Muschamp is bringing in. The Florida Gator offense has been unbearable to watch since Tim Tebow left The Swamp. John Brantley did not fit the spread offense and was hampered by the ignorance of Steve Addazio. When he got comfortable, he then got his bell rung by a ruthless Alabama defense. With the QB position still up in the air going into the season, I have no high hopes for Florida. The offense should improve, but that's coming from being at the rock bottom. However, with David Driskel or Jacoby Brissett not running away with the position, I have a hard time seeing the Gators as contenders. I'd see a 7-5 record and wouldn't be surprised if it was 5-7.
3) West Virginia will win The Big XII: Wait, this is coming from the guy who said The Big XII might be the second best conference in the country last year. So why would I think a team coming from The Big East would go in and contend in this conference? Easy, with the exception of Texas (Oklahoma in some cases), the reputation of Big XII defense has that it's been non existent. West Virginia does have a really good offense and a Senior QB and experience O-Line returning. Also, weather gets very cold in Morgantown around October and November (believe me, I've been there). With home games against Kansas State, TCU, and Oklahoma in October and November. Most Southeast and Midwest teams hate the cold weather (Example: Auburn's trip to Morgantown in 2008) Despite losing to Texas, I could still see Texas slipping a few games and Oklahoma dropping the ball like they have been in the last half-decade, including last year.
4) I'm buying the Florida State hype this year: The O-Line and QB E.J. Manuel are much more experienced. On the defensive side, they could have the best D-Line in the country. Although, I could see them slipping up in 1 of the 3 games vs. Clemson, Miami, or Virginia Tech, I also see Florida State playing in a BCS game this season. The past few summers we've seem people write how Florida State is back. This year, I believe it.
5) A Pac-12 team will not be in the BCS Title game: You don't really have to guess which teams I'm talking about. Oregon has the benefit of not playing a non-conference team like LSU (opting for Arkansas State) and USC has the benefit of playing non-conference teams they can beat but will likely be in bowls. Matt Barkley returns at QB for the Trojans while Oregon is starting with a Freshman QB. In my opinion, anyone would probably be a better decision maker than Darren Thomas. Both teams will most likely be 8-0 going into their matchup on November 13th in Pascadena with a likely rematch in the Pac-12 Championship. You might have an idea where I'm going. I have a hard time thinking that Chip Kelley or Lane Kiffin could beat a good quality opponent twice in a row in a 30 day or so span. Although we may not witness the chaos we did last year in the BCS, the Pac-12 Title game will probably be the most watched game by fans of a 1-loss SEC, Big XII, or even Florida State fans.
6) Wisconsin will be the only Big Ten team to finish in the Top 10: Most of the hype in the Big Ten has been surrounded by Michigan, Michigan State, and Urban Meyer's first season at Ohio State. A team that seems to get lost in the mayhem is the Wisconsin Badgers. Despite losing Russell Wilson who is now with the Seattle Seahawks, Bret Bilema picked up Danny O'Brien from Maryland and Montee' Ball returns at RB. I won't say the Badgers will be in the BCS title game because they seem to always play themselves out of it. However, I could see them in the Top 5 and playing a contentious game with USC or Oregon, and with a Top 10 finish. Michigan is one year away, Brady Hoke has a recruiting class that is out of this world for 2013. They don't have the size to face Alabama and could slip up at Notre Dame, Nebraska, or at Ohio State. Depending on how beat up the Wolverines are after the Alabama game could set the tone for their season. Michigan State has Wisconsin and Michigan back to back on the road. I don't see them winning either one.
7) Notre Dame wins a game they're not suppose to and goes 9-3: Decades ago when you heard the words Notre Dame, you cringed at the success of a prestigious football program. Today, you laugh at them like you do a Lucky Charm's commercial. Despite the regimes of Bob Davie, Tyrone Willingham, Charlie Weis, Brian Kelley has the uphill climb of navigating Notre Dame to the most wins since with a insane schedule, just look at it. I could see most of these games by Notre Dame winnable with home games against Navy, Purdue, Michigan, Miami, Stanford, BYU, Pitt, and Wake Forest. I could see them beating Oklahoma in Norman, but getting crushed by USC in LA. Although 8-4 or 7-5 is the safe pick to go with, I could see Notre Dame taking 9 games, which puts them just out of the BCS bid.
8) Joker Phillips and Derek Dooley will be fired at the end of the season: And I hate it, because it was a lost cause from the beginning. I'm not saying Joker Phillips was a bad coach, he inheritted a team that was gutted from the talent Rich Brooks brought in. If you heard on the audio preview I had with Mark Story of the Lexington Herald-Leader, ticket sales are down in Lexington and I don't see any signs of it improving for Kentucky. Vanderbilt is on the rise, Tennessee will be improved if they stay healthy, Florida is in a sputter, and then add Missouri into the division. A recipe for disaster if you're Kentucky. Derek Dooley is doing all the right things at Tennessee. He was left with a cess pool and he's not going to instantly turn it into a coy pond. The loss of Da'Rick Rogers does have an impact, but if Tyler Bray stays healthy and a statement win against NC State, Tennessee could be a 7-5 team. However, I'm not sure it will happen. I could see Tennessee going 6-6, but I think the fan base could be trumpeting the Bobby Petrino song by season's end. They want to win, not wait for someone to build a program. Kentucky will be singing that song in a bluegrass tone as well.
9) Auburn will go 8-4 this season: The games I see Auburn losing for sure is against LSU and Alabama. They will win a game or two they're not suppose to (Clemson, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas A&M) and possibly lose a game they're not suppose to (Vanderbilt, Miss St). Auburn proved critics wrong with their 8-5 finish last year. That was with a horrid defense that left them frozen like a deer on the interstate. The difference this year, the defense will improve, it couldn't get any worse than it was under Ted Roof. The offense may not blow you away this year, but it won't be as nightmarish. If Auburn does take a dive at 6-6, don't be alarmed.
10) LSU will win the SEC West, the SEC Championship, and will play for the BCS Title again:
Sorry Alabama, but you've pissed off a sleeping giant. Despite the hunger and desire that come from Alabama after the 9-6 regular season loss, LSU is coming in a bit hungrier this year. After the embarassment LSU suffered (mostly because of Jordan Jefferson), this LSU team is motivated. Although the Honey Badger has now left all doubts that LSU could be a contender, I disagree. LSU could have been in the last 5 years a dynasty that could have come once in a lifetime. The problem, Jordan Jefferson just flat out sucked as QB and Jarrett Lee had his moments until he became Jarrett Lee again. With the talent LSU had at WR, they didn't have a QB competent enough to give them the ball. There's no arguing that Alabama may have the best offense in the SEC and a stack of talent that's getting a shot on defense. However, it's VERY VERY VERY hard to repeat as a National Champion in FBS. Will they contend? You bet. A new offensive co-ordinator and new defensive starters could see Alabama going 10-2 at worse. The X-Factor is Zach Mettenberger for LSU. From what I've seen of this guy, he's legit and should have been the starter last year. Also, their matchup on Nov. 3rd is at night in Baton Rouge. Les Miles rarely loses those games.
There you go, discuss and tell me I'm right or tell me I'm wrong. Let the debate begin.
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